| End of the World as We Know it. |
[Apr. 6th, 2008|08:48 pm] |
by Guy R. McPherson
Peak oil spells the end of civilization. And, if it's not already too late, perhaps it will prevent the extinction of our species.
M. King Hubbert, a petroleum geologist employed by Shell Oil Co., described peak oil in 1956. Production of crude oil, like the production of many non-renewable resources, follows a bell-shaped curve. The top of the curve is termed "peak oil," or "Hubbert's peak," and it represents the halfway point for production.
The bell-shaped curve applies at all levels, from field to country to planet. After discovery, production ramps up relatively quickly. But when the light, sweet crude on top of the field runs out, increased energy and expense are required to extract the underlying heavy, sour crude. At some point, the energy required to extract a barrel of oil exceeds the energy contained in barrel of oil, so the pumps shut down. advertisement
Most of the world's oil pumps are about to shut down.
We have sufficient supply to keep the world running for 30 years or so, at the current level of demand. But that's irrelevant because the days of inexpensive oil are behind us. And the American Empire absolutely demands cheap oil. Never mind the 3,000-mile Caesar salad to which we've become accustomed. Cheap oil forms the basis for the 12,000-mile supply chain underlying the "just-in-time" delivery of plastic toys from China.
There goes next year's iPod.
In 1956, Hubbert predicted the continental United States would peak in 1970. He was correct, and the 1970s gave us a small, temporary taste of the sociopolitical and economic consequences of expensive oil.
We passed the world oil peak in 2005, and we've been easing down the other side by acquiring oil at the point of a gun - actually, guns are the smallest of the many weapons we're using - paying more for oil and destroying one culture after another as the high price of crude oil forces supply disruptions and power outages in Third World countries.
The world peaked at 74.3 million barrels per day in May 2005. The two-year decline to 73.2 million barrels per day produced a doubling of the price of crude. Later this year, we fall off the oil-supply cliff, with global supply plummeting below 70 million barrels/day. Oil at merely $100 per barrel will seem like the good old days.
Within a decade, we'll be staring down the barrel of a crisis: Oil at $400 per barrel brings down the American Empire, the project of globalization and water coming through the taps. Never mind happy motoring through the never-ending suburbs in the Valley of the Sun. In a decade, unemployment will be approaching 100 percent, inflation will be running at 1,000 percent and central heating will be a pipe dream.
In short, this country will be well on its way to the post-industrial Stone Age.
After all, no alternative energy sources scale up to the level of a few million people, much less the 6.5 billion who currently occupy Earth. Oil is necessary to extract and deliver coal and natural gas. Oil is needed to produce solar panels and wind turbines, and to maintain the electrical grid.
Ninety percent of the oil consumed in this country is burned by airplanes, ships, trains and automobiles. You can kiss goodbye groceries at the local big-box grocery store: Our entire system of food production and delivery depends on cheap oil.
If you're alive in a decade, it will be because you've figured out how to forage locally.
The death and suffering will be unimaginable. We have come to depend on cheap oil for the delivery of food, water, shelter and medicine. Most of us are incapable of supplying these four key elements of personal survival, so trouble lies ahead when we are forced to develop means of acquiring them that don't involve a quick trip to Wal-Mart.
On the other hand, the forthcoming cessation of economic growth is truly good news for the world's species and cultures. In addition, the abrupt halt of fossil-fuel consumption may slow the warming of our planetary home, thereby preventing our extinction at our own hand.
Our individual survival, and our common future, depends on our ability to quickly make other arrangements. We can view this as a personal challenge, or we can take the Hemingway out. The choice is ours.
For individuals interested in making other arrangements, it's time to start acquiring myriad requisite skills. It is far too late to save civilization for 300 million Americans, much less the rest of the planet's citizens, but we can take joy in a purpose-filled, intimate life.
It's time to push away from the shore, to let the winds of change catch the sails of our leaky boat.
It's time to trust in ourselves, our neighbors and the Earth that sustains us all.
Painful though it might be, it's time to abandon the cruise ship of empire in exchange for a lifeboat.
Guy R. McPherson is a professor of conservation biology at the University of Arizona. |
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| Comments: |
We know its coming. Most are taking the head-in-the-sand approach. The rest of us don't know what to do about it. Me included. But I'm thinking that sacrificing 300 million American lives in order to give the rest of the world population a bit more time to acquire myriad requisite skills is a really good idea.
Well the problem with most people who know its comming is they think I cant do anything to stop this so give up. The point is the situation cant be stopped but you can do some things now that will make your lives a bit better when things go tits up.
You also need to do these things now so that you have some skills already in place.
You should definatly know how to get water and food for yourself without having to rely on the government or local authorities. You should concider how to get to work without a car and reduce your debts, including your mortgage as fast as possible.
It might not get that bad that you wont have water comming out of the taps but do you want to risk waiting to find out if thats going to happen?
This artical posted I find to be a bit overboard but put it up on the hopes of a discusion starting. He also says that trouble will begin at the end of this year. He has know way of knowing this and many peak oil experts say that dropping off of the plataeu we are sitting on now could come at any time over the next 6 years. It will result in a year on year 5% or more drop in world oil production. This will have massive economic repocusion that will make the present housing problems that started in the US and is now spreading world wide look like a picnic.
Well I don't drive to work but if things get that dire then one would assume there will be no internet (no electricity) and therefore Matt and I would both be out of a job. We are working on paying off our debts ASAP, I think that's really important, and I've just started growing potatoes but now I've been sidetracked by the question; which came first? The potatoe or the potatoe seed?
![[User Picture]](http://l-userpic.livejournal.com/80885388/3513159) | From: ![[info]](http://l-stat.livejournal.com/img/userinfo.gif) grautr
2008-04-13 12:01 am (UTC)
Re: Where to start | (Link)
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The power for the electricity grid in most countries comes mostly from natural gas. You should be able to find out what is mostly used in Australia with a quick google. World natural gas production is due to peak about 10 years after oil. Most countries also have oil powered stations but mostly use these as a back up system.
Australia sits on some quite large uranium deposits but many countries have neglected their nuclear programs and a slump in nuclear power world wide is due over the next 10 years.
You are more likely to lose access to your car first either by direct fuel shortages or being priced out of the market by sky high prices. Power blackouts will probably come later and i asume fridge freezers will quickly be dumped by the thousands into back yards after all the food has spoiled in them a few times.
How are you growing your tatters? straight in the ground or in containers? | |
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