| Increasing Numbers of Oil Experts are Forecasting Impending Peak Production Plateau |
[Feb. 18th, 2008|11:47 am] |
Matt Simmons’ presentation to the Minnesota House of State Representatives, February 4, 2008, shows the current production plateau on slide 29, with a forecast of 69 mbd crude oil and lease condensate by 2012. On January 31, 2008, Kang Wu and Fereidun Fesharaki, of the East-West Center, released a book titled "Asia's Energy Future: Regional Dynamics and Global Impliciations" which stated that global oil production might increase to 100 or perhaps even 105 mbd somewhere between 2015 and 2020. Jeff Rubin and Peter Buchanan, CIBC World Markets, wrote a report, dated January 10, 2008, which forecasts a peak production plateau of just over 88 mbd from 2011 to 2012. On January 22, 2008, Jeroen van der Veer, CEO of Shell, in an email to all Shell employees, acknowledged the reality of peak plateau when he said that “after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil and gas will no longer keep up with demand”. In a similar acknowledgement in November 2007, the CEO of Total, Christophe de Margerie, and the CEO of ConocoPhillips, James Mulva, both stated that supply would not exceed 100 mbd. Colin Campbell, in his November 2007 newsletter also stated the possibility of a peak plateau now, altering his original forecast of a depletion based “Peak in 2010 at 87.3 Mb/d that becomes 90 Mb/d with refinery gain. A depletion-based Peak may not of course be reached if high prices hold down demand, delivering more of a plateau than a peak”.
On October 30, 2007, Shokri Ganem, Libya's National Oil Corp Chairman, said that supply may not exceed 100 mbd and later, in January 2008, he said that OPEC can do little and that most OPEC countries are producing at capacity. Sadad Al-Husseini, former Saudi Aramco exploration and production head, presented this production forecast at the Oil & Money October 2007 conference which showed a production plateau of crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids extending from 2009 to 2012 at 83 mbd, followed by a decline. Dr. Werner Zittel and Jorg Schindler, Energy Watch Group, wrote a report, dated October, 2007, which forecasts a historic peak of 81 mbd in 2006 of crude oil, condensate and natural gas liquids. On October 8, 2007, Jim Buckee, retired CEO of Talisman Energy, said that the world is at peak production or close to it. Finally, Chris Skrebowski, editor UK Petroleum Review, said in October 2007, that world total liquids production will reach a peak plateau of 92 mbd during 2010 to 2011 but he adds: “so what my analysis is saying is that we’ve got another 5 to 7 million barrels a day to come if everything works properly”.
Another expert who made great contributions to the awareness of peak oil is Dr. Ali Morteza Samsam-Bakhtiari, a retired director of the National Iranian Oil Co., who regrettably passed away in October 2007. Dr Samsam-Bakhtiari, using his WOCAP model, predicted a 2006 to 2007 peak plateau of 81 to 82 mbd of crude oil, lease condensate and natural gas plant liquids. He also said that “it became clear that the modelling phase of ‘Peak Oil’ had come to an abrupt close and that henceforward ‘Peak Modelling’ should be shelved once and for all”. |
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